Lockdowns across the globe have been exhausting physically and mentally for many people. People were waiting for the end of 2020 as if in the next year something would change and things would get better again. This something of course is a vaccine, which actually had been created at the end of the year. But still, there’s a long time to go until the vaccine gets worldwide due to the various hurdles faced, from making enough vaccines, testing, dealing with bureaucracy, and then getting it to everyone.
How has this year started in different countries
Turkey started the New Year by implementing a four-day lockdown. Belgium and Germany muted celebrations due to the pandemic, as well as France, which enforced their curfew with 100,000 extra officers on its street. In the UK because of the more contagious variant of the virus, people were exposed to a strict lockdown that curtailed Christmas celebrations and shopping sprees. In India, celebrations were toned down because of curfews. UAE had their fireworks show near the Burj Khalifa, but citizens said virus mitigation rules made the event less fun. This was similar to Australia, where fireworks appeared over the Sydney Opera House and Harbour Bridge but the authorities still advised to watch them on TV.
South Korea even broke the tradition they had since 1953. They usually had a bell ringing in Seoul on New Year’s Eve, but that event was cancelled this year due to COVID. Many things have changed and the world may never be the same again.
Specialists’ opinion
Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. In their recent BCG report, they looked at 3 scenarios of how fast the recovery after COVID will happen worldwide. BCG divided the possible outcomes into three: fast recovery, cautious confidence, and prolonged drought.
Fast recovery, according to the report, was possible in Q3 2021 provided that “Multiple high efficacy vaccines are available in late 2020”, but this was failed to be achieved. Cautious confidence in Q1 2022 is possible if two vaccines would be available by the end of 2020, which actually did happen. The worst-case scenario is if the vaccine is not as effective as it was thought, and in this case, we should expect difficult and slow vaccine deployment. Only if everything is good with the current vaccines, and the virus doesn’t mutate causing new strains, we can expect a slow recovery by the end of this year.
Global Mobility specialist’s opinion
At Clearmove the person who is responsible for Supply Chains is our VP, James Speirs. We always ask him for his opinion when it comes to future predictions about Global Mobility. Here is what he says regarding 2021:
“From the conversations I have been having with partners, there is a mixed reception. They are obviously looking at their business and impacts there, I would say most of them (at the global level) are optimistic and looking for things to pick up in Q3 of this year, acknowledging that Q1 & Q2 will be slow. This is all dependent on their clients and what they choose to do. What they have been experiencing is drops with traditional high volume clients, but increases in other non-traditional areas of client volume, so they feel things will balance out over the year. As I say, a more optimistic view. Those that are only dealing at a single country level are more dependent on what is being done locally to manage the impact of COVID, and it varies from optimism about 2021, to a more pessimistic expectation to fight to survive the year.”
Overall, we’re pretty confident that 2021 will be significantly better than 2020. The quarantine cannot last forever and the world needs to stabilize towards a new normal, with a safer yet freer pace of life. We strongly believe this will happen soon. The greatest power we currently have is patience. Stay safe!